A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
